1. Federal Register, October 19: Canadian lumber duty for most mills 24.75%
Commerce published the final results of its seventh review of the duties on Canadian softwood lumber, applicable October 19, 2026. For most Canadian mills (the "non-selected" companies) the antidumping duty is now 10.64% and the countervailing duty 14.11%: 24.75% together, according to Canada's summary of the same results, down from 35.16% set in 2025. The three large mills reviewed one by one got their own rates: Canfor 31.11%, Resolute 25.55%, West Fraser 20.02% combined.
The separate 10% Section 232 tariff on imported softwood lumber, in force since October 14, 2025, has not changed, so most Canadian lumber still carries about 35% in duties at the border.
Why a small contractor should care: framing lumber, studs and decking are a big share of a deck, an addition or a framing job. Our reading, not the government's: a lower duty can reach yard prices, but slowly and not for certain; the yard's current stock was bought at the old rate.
2. Census, October 20: single-family starts 859,000, the lowest in a year
Builders started single-family homes at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 859,000 in September, 4.6% below August, Census reported. Census marks that monthly change as not statistically significant (±10.0%), so read it as "flat to down". The steadier signal is permits, which come first: single-family permits fell 4.0% to 845,000, and total completions were 14.0% below September 2025. NAHB calls 859,000 the lowest level in a year and names higher financing costs, building material costs and labor shortages.
Why it matters: fewer permits now means fewer new homes needing drywall, flooring, cabinets and trim in the months ahead. Trades that work mostly for builders will feel it first.
What to do this week
- 01Ask your lumber yard for a fresh quote on the lines you buy most and ask straight out when the lower duty will show up in their price. Update your own price only when the quote moves.
- 02On estimates that are sent but not signed, do not cut lumber lines in advance. If a quote does come in lower, tell the client: it is a good reason to call.
- 03If most of your work is new homes, ask your builders how many starts they have for the next three months, and start a list of remodel and repair clients to fill the gap.
Where WorkTime CRM helps with this
Your own prices live in the Pricebook: change a lumber line once and new estimates use it. How long a sent price holds is set in Settings → Estimate Design ("Price is guaranteed for N days", 30 by default); the client sees the countdown on the signing page.