1. NAHB, October 19: the builder index fell to 29
Builder confidence in the market for new single-family homes fell 3 points to 29 in October, the lowest reading since June 2012, NAHB reported. Anything under 50 means more builders call conditions poor than good. Current sales fell 2 points to 33, expected sales over the next six months fell 5 points to 32, and buyer traffic fell 5 points to 18, the lowest since April 2012 if you leave out the first pandemic month.
43% of builders cut prices in October, the highest share since 2020; the average cut stayed at 6% for the seventh month. 65% used sales incentives. NAHB named mortgage rates "well above 7%" in recent weeks, and higher costs for construction loans, materials and diesel. By region (three-month averages) the West is weakest at 26 and the South is at 30; the Northeast is at 38 and the Midwest at 40.
Why a small contractor should care: builders who cut prices and slow starts squeeze their trade subs first, on price and on timing. Our reading, not NAHB's: if most of your work is new homes, expect slower draws and harder haggling; if you remodel, expect more crews looking for the same jobs.
2. Same survey: more than one-third saw immigration enforcement
NAHB Chairman Bill Owens said more than one-third of builders nationwide reported immigration enforcement activity in their market areas in the past month, "causing construction delays and discouraging legal workers from reporting to work."
Why it matters: a job loses days not only when someone is detained, but when people with every right to work stay home that week. A start date you promised the client becomes the thing that slips.
What to do this week
- 01If you work for builders, ask each one now when the next starts are and how fast they pay; get the dates and terms in writing before you hold a crew for them.
- 02Build a day or two of slack into start dates you promise homeowners, and tell the client early if a date moves. A call before the day costs less trust than an empty driveway.
- 03Have a backup person or sub for each trade you depend on, and keep their papers current.
- 04Check that your own hiring paperwork (Form I-9 for employees, contracts and W-9 for subs) is complete and filed. How the rules apply to your company is a question for an employment attorney, not this note.
Where WorkTime CRM helps with this
The projects calendar shows every job by week with its crew and signed subs as coloured dots. When someone does not show up, you see which jobs that person is on and whom to call first.