1. NAHB, October 14: 47% of builders short of labor, framers hardest to find
NAHB published the special questions from its September 2026 Housing Market Index survey on October 14. Builders were asked about shortages in 16 trades. For labor they employ directly, the share reporting a shortage ran from 33% (excavators and building maintenance managers) to 58% (finished carpentry). Plumbers (45%) and HVAC (43%) were unchanged from the April 2025 survey; the other 14 trades all rose. The largest jumps: framing crews up 9 points to 57%, landscaping up 7 to 39%, roofers up 6 to 36%.
Across the nine trades NAHB has tracked since 1996 the average is 47%, up from 42% in April 2025. NAHB's economist Paul Emrath notes that this is higher than at any point in the 2004 to 2006 boom, when housing starts topped 1.8 million a year; August 2026 starts ran under 1.3 million. The subcontractor side used to be worse than the direct-hire side; the two now track each other, and in five trades (framers, rough carpenters, finished carpenters, bricklayers, concrete) more than half of builders report shortages of both. The median builder says the labor cost of the same house rose 4.2% over the last 12 months. The causes NAHB names: residential employment trending down while data centers compete for the same crews, and immigration enforcement "heightening worker fears".
Why a remodeler should care: the framer, roofer and finish carpenter you rely on is on the builders' list too, and the builders are now paying 4.2% more for him. A sub who answered in a day last spring may answer in a week this winter, and a quote that holds the spring labor price is a quote that loses money.
2. BLS, October 14: gasoline up 9.1% in September, 34.2% over the year
The September Consumer Price Index, released October 14 at 8:30 AM ET, rose 0.6% for the month and 3.7% over 12 months, up from 3.4% in August. Energy did it: the energy index rose 5.2% in the month and 20.4% over the year. Gasoline, all types, rose 9.1% in September seasonally adjusted and 34.2% over 12 months; fuel oil is up 74.2% over the year. Shelter rose 3.2% over the year. Core inflation, without food and energy, was 2.6%. NAHB's read: inflation has sat above the Fed's 2% target for more than five years, which keeps pressure on rates; mortgage rates have been above 7% since mid-September.
For a crew that drives to two or three sites a day the fuel line is not a rounding error anymore. A trip charge that was set when a gallon cost a third less is paying for the gas, not the visit.
3. NAR, October 13: 3.99 million sales, 4.8 months of supply, homes sit 33 days
The National Association of Realtors counted existing-home sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million in September, up 1.5% from August and down 2.2% from a year earlier. Inventory rose to 1.60 million homes, a 4.8-month supply (4.5 a year ago); the median home took 33 days to sell, up from 31 in August; the median price was $417,500, up 1.3% in a year, the 39th straight month of annual gains. First-time buyers were 31% of sales. NAR's chief economist Lawrence Yun: "August and September marked the two slowest months for home sales this year" and "higher inventory and lengthening days on market give buyers improved negotiating power."
The remodeling reading: fewer people are moving, more sellers are competing, and a house that sits for a month is a house whose owner starts asking what it would take to sell faster. That is pre-listing work (paint, floors, a bathroom refresh) for the contractor who is already in the realtor's phone, and a reason to re-open every estimate a client parked "until we decide about moving".
Florida after Isaias: Tuesday's numbers
An update to Monday's note, from the governor's office on October 13: power was back for 95% of affected customers after nearly 450,000 outages at the peak; 53 of 260 pre-authorized debris sites were open; the Disaster Contractors Network took nearly 950 new registrations and stands at 7,400; DBPR contacted 101,637 licensed contractors asking them to register, expedited more than 275 contractor applications including roofers, and its teams ran 76 license checks on advertisements suspected of unlicensed activity, now under investigation. If you advertise storm repairs in Florida, the ad carries the license number; that is what the 76 checks are looking for.
What to do about it this week
- 01Get a second sub for every trade you cannot do in-house, before you need one. Framing, roofing and finish carpentry first: those are the trades the builders are bidding up.
- 02Re-price labor in any estimate older than six months before you send it again. The builders' median labor increase is 4.2%; your sub's number may be higher.
- 03Recalculate the trip or service charge against today's fuel. Keep the receipt from the pump on the job it belongs to, so the number is defensible.
- 04Call the realtors you have worked with: a listing that sat 33 days is a pre-sale job. Then go through every estimate that stalled since spring; the owner who did not move may remodel.
- 05Florida: every storm ad, flyer and yard sign with the license number on it. DBPR is reading them.
Where WorkTime CRM helps with this
With the sub bench and the paper, not with the labor market.
- The bench: Subs → My partners keeps every sub you have ever handed a job to, with trade, rating and the invite button. For a trade where you have one name, "📢 Request Bids" on the Subs page sends the scope from an estimate to matching subs and brings back their prices; the directory shows each sub's license and insurance dates on a "Fit at a glance" card before you write.
- Hiring your own: an opening posted from Hiring goes to the public board, and every new candidate with that role in your state is sent to you in Telegram.
- The fuel receipt: snap it at the pump into Receipts & documents, pick the project, and it is an expense line on that job with the original attached.
- The parked estimates: the Pipeline shows every estimate by stage with the date of the last touch, so the spring ones are one filter away.